Global growth to slow through 2023 due to continued COVID-19 flare-ups – New Global Economic Prospects report

After rebounding to an estimated 5.5 percent in 2021, global growth is expected to decelerate markedly to 4.1 percent in 2022, reflecting continued COVID-19 flare-ups, diminished fiscal support, and lingering supply bottlenecks, according to a New Global Economic Prospects report.

The COVID-19 upsurge comes as the vaccine supply crunch persists.. Photo credit: United Nations

In contrast to that in advanced economies, output in emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs) will remain substantially below the pre-pandemic trend over the forecast horizon.

The global outlook is clouded by various downside risks, including renewed COVID-19 outbreaks due to Omicron or new virus variants, the possibility of de-anchored inflation expectations, and financial stress in a context of record-high debt levels.

The report states that if some countries eventually require debt restructuring, this will be more difficult to achieve than in the past.

Climate change may increase commodity price volatility, creating challenges for the almost two-thirds of EMDEs that rely heavily on commodity exports and highlighting the need for asset diversification. Social tensions may heighten as a result of the increase in between-country and within-country inequality caused by the pandemic. Given limited policy space in EMDEs to support activity if needed, these downside risks increase the possibility of a hard landing.

These challenges underscore the importance of strengthened global cooperation to foster rapid and equitable vaccine distribution, proactive measures to enhance debt sustainability in the poorest countries, redoubled efforts to tackle climate change and within-country inequality, and an emphasis on growth-enhancing policy interventions to promote green, resilient, and inclusive development and on reforms that broaden economic activity to decouple from global commodity markets.

Climate change may increase commodity price volatility

The near-term outlook for global growth is somewhat weaker, and for global inflation notably higher, than previously envisioned, owing to pandemic resurgence, higher food and energy prices, and more pernicious supply disruptions. Global growth is projected to soften further to 3.2 percent in 2023, as pent-up demand wanes and supportive macroeconomic policies continue to be unwound.

However, the report further noted that although output and investment in advanced economies are projected to return to pre-pandemic trends next year, in emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs)— particularly in small states and fragile and conflict -afflicted countries—they will remain markedly below, owing to lower vaccination rates, tighter fiscal and monetary policies, and more persistent scarring from the pandemic.

UN chief: Window to avert devasting climate impacts ‘rapidly closing’

No region is immune to climate disasters the UN chief told the Security Council on Thursday, warning that “our window of opportunity” to prevent the worst climate impacts is “rapidly closing”.

Drawing attention to the “deeply alarming” report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) last month, Secretary-General António Guterres spelled out that “much bolder climate action is needed” to maintain international peace and security.

He urged the G20 industrialized nations to step up and drive action before the UN Climate Conference (COP26) in early November.

Against the backdrop of wildfires, flooding, droughts and other extreme weather events, the UN chief said that “no region is immune”.

And he pointed out that the climate crisis is “particularly profound” with compounded by fragility and conflict.

Describing climate change and environmental mismanagement as “risk multipliers”, he explained that last year, climate-related disasters displaced more than 30 million people and that 90 per cent of refugees come from countries least able to adapt to the climate crisis.

Many of these refugees are hosted by States also suffering the impacts of climate change, “compounding the challenge for host communities and national budgets”, Mr. Guterres told ambassadors, adding that the COVID pandemic is also undermining governments’ ability to respond to climate disasters and build resilience.

Maintaining that “it is not too late to act”, the top UN official highlighted three “absolute priorities”, beginning with capping global warming at 1.5 degrees Celsius.

To avert catastrophic climate impacts, he urged all Member States to up their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) – plans through which countries commit to increasingly ambitious climate action – before COP26 and to translate those commitments into “concrete and immediate action”.

“Collectively, we need a 45 per cent cut in global emissions by 2030”, he said.

To address the dire impacts of climate disruption, Mr. Guterres stressed the need for adaptation and resilience, which he maintained requires committing at least half of global climate finance to build resilience and support adaptation.

“We simply cannot achieve our shared climate goals – nor achieve hope for lasting peace and security – if resilience and adaptation continue to be the forgotten half of the climate equation”, he said.

Paris climate deal could go up in smoke without action: Guterres

NOAA/Jerry Penry
Scientists believe that climate change is causing an increase in extreme weather events.

Unless wealthy nations commit to tackling emissions now, the world is on a “catastrophic pathway” to 2.7-degrees of heating by the end of the century, UN Secretary General António Guterres warned on Friday.

The UN chief’s remarks came after the UN’s climate agency (UNFCCC) published an update on national climate action plans (officially known as Nationally Determined Contributions or NDCs) submitted by the 191 countries which signed Agreement.

The report indicates that while there is a clear trend that greenhouse gas emissions are being reduced over time, nations must urgently redouble their climate efforts if they are to prevent disastrous global heating in the future.

The document includes updates to the NDCs of 113 countries that represent around 49% of global emissions, including the nations of the European Union and the United States.

Those countries overall expect their greenhouse gas emissions to decrease by 12% in 2030 compared to 2010. “This is an important step,” the report points out, but insufficient, as highlighted by Mr. Guterres at Friday’s Forum of Major Economies on Energy and Climate, hosted by the President of the United States, Joe Biden

“We need a 45 per cent cut in emissions by 2030, to reach carbon neutrality by mid-century…It is clear that everyone must assume their responsibilities”, he emphasized.

70 countries indicated their embrace of carbon neutrality goals by around the middle of the century. If this materializes, it could lead to even greater emissions reductions, of about 26% by 2030, compared to 2010, the report explains.

According to the latest IPCC findings, that would mean that unless climate action is taken immediately, it may lead to a temperature rise of about 2.7C, by the end of this century.

“The recent report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was a code red for humanity. But it also made clear that it is not too late to meet the Paris Agreement 1.5-degree target. We have the tools to achieve this target. But we are rapidly running out of time”, the UN chief highlighted.

The Secretary General highlighted a particular challenge: energy still obtained from coal. “If all planned coal power plants become operational, we will not only be clearly above 1.5 degrees – we will be well above 2 degrees. The Paris targets would go up in smoke”.

UNDP Comoros/James Stapley
Farmers and fisherfolk in the Comoros Islands are needing to adapt to climate change.

Mr. Guterres urged the creation of “coalitions of solidarity” between countries that still depend heavily on coal, and countries that have the financial and technical resources to support transitions to cleaner energy sources.

Without pledges and financial commitments from industrialised nations to make this happen, “there is a high risk of failure of COP26”, Mr. Guterres continued, referring to the pivotal UN Climate summit in Glasgow in six weeks’ time.

“G20 nations account for 80% of global emissions. Their leadership is needed more than ever. The decisions they take now will determine whether the promise made at Paris is kept or broken”, he warned.

Sierra Leone: Vice President Launches National Early Warning and Response Mechanism Coordinating Center

Vice President Dr Mohamed Juldeh Jalloh has launched the National Early Warning and Response Mechanism Coordinating Center, an initiative intended to be a community instrument for solidarity, essential for the prevention, management and resolution of conflicts besetting West Africa.

He assured the Economic Community of West African States, ECOWAS, of the country’s ability to handle the center, especially for its intended purposes, adding that the infrastructure already was equipped enough to be able to help it work efficiently.

The 15-member regional group, in January 2020, announced the move for the establishment of a national centre for the coordination of early warning and response center in Sierra Leone as a proactive measure to address regional challenges in responding to such problems as climate change, security and health issues.

Addressing the meeting, the President of the Commission of ECOWAS, Jean-Claude Kassi Brou, said they had decided to establish the center in all member states and that he was pleased to be in the country for the same launch.

He went on to reiterate that the center was to manage crisis, manage information prior to crisis and to prevent crisis from happening. He noted that the establishment of the center would help the country to have stability in terms of peace and security.

He also disclosed that the ECOWAS Commission had taken up the responsibility to fund the center for the first year of its establishment.

Minister of Planning and Economic Development, Dr Francis Kai Kai, and in charge of the center, said he was pleased that Sierra Leone had joined other member states in the coordination and management of health and security crises.

“I want to commend the astute leadership of President Julius Maada Bio for giving his full support in ensuring the center is established,” he noted, adding that he was also appreciative of all key stakeholders and donor partners for their tremendous support to the process.

Head of European Union delegation in Sierra Leone, Ambassador European, Manuel Mueller, said the establishment of the center was laudable and would contribute to promoting the development of the country.

NASA’s Oceans Melting Greenland Mission Leaves for Its Last Field Trip

NASA’s airborne Oceans Melting Greenland (OMG) mission begins its final survey of glaciers that flow from Greenland into the ocean. OMG is completing a six-year mission that is helping to answer how fast sea level is going to rise in the next five, 10, or 50 years.

Greenland’s melting glaciers currently contribute more fresh water to sea level rise than any other source does. The glaciers are melting six or seven times faster today than they were only 25 years ago, and OMG is the first NASA mission to focus solely on what the ocean contributes to this ice loss. That’s a critical part of helping improve calculations of future melt rates so that coastal communities worldwide can take timely precautions to limit the damage from higher seas.

Ice melts faster in warmer water than it does in colder water, but before the OMG mission, the temperature of the ocean water touching Greenland’s more than 200 coastal glaciers was largely unknown. Simply measuring the temperature at the ocean surface isn’t enough. The upper layer of the ocean around Greenland consists largely of Arctic meltwater, and it’s very cold – sometimes even below freezing temperature. About 600 or 700 feet (200 meters) down is a layer of warmer, saltier water carried northward from less-frigid latitudes. Many glacier fronts extend down into the warmer-water zone, where they melt more rapidly.

This visualization explains how a glacier melts from below. Credit: NASA’s Scientific Visualization Studio

No satellite instrument can peer deep into the ocean to measure temperature. The only way scientists have found to do that is to drop a probe into the water and let it sink. That’s what the OMG team has been doing every summer since 2016.

This year, Principal Investigator Josh Willis of NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Southern California and OMG Project Manager Ian McCubbin, also of JPL, will fly around the entire coast of Greenland with a crew of pilot and engineers in a specially modified DC-3 aircraft. From early August through early or mid-September, they’ll drop probes out of the belly of the plane into the ocean at about 300 target locations in front of glaciers. As the probes sink, they transmit temperature and salinity readings by radio waves to the plane overhead until they reach the ocean floor.

The article is published courtesy of NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory

Index Ranks Rainforests’ Vulnerability to Climate and Human Impacts

Scientists from NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Southern California and other international research institutions have created a tropical rainforest vulnerability index. It will detect and evaluate the vulnerability of these diverse ecosystems to two main categories of threats: the warming and drying climate, and the consequences of human land use such as deforestation and fragmentation from encroaching roads, agricultural fields, and logging.

The index shows that the world’s three major rainforest areas have different degrees of susceptibility to these threats. The Amazon Basin in South America is extremely vulnerable to both climate change and changes in human land use. The Congo Basin in Africa is undergoing the same warming and drying trends as the Amazon but is more resilient. Most Asian rainforests appear to be suffering more from changes in land use than from the changing climate.

“Rainforests are perhaps the most endangered habitat on Earth – the canary in the climate-change coal mine,” said Sassan Saatchi, a JPL scientist and lead author of the new study published July 23 in the journal OneEarth.

These diverse ecosystems are home to more than half of the planet’s life forms and contain more than half of all the carbon in land vegetation. They serve as a natural brake on the rise of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere from fossil fuel burning because they “breathe in” carbon dioxide and store carbon as they grow.

But in the last century, 15 to 20% of rainforests have been cut down, and another 10% have been degraded. Today’s warmer climate, which has led to increasingly frequent and widespread forest fires, is limiting the forests’ capacity to absorb carbon dioxide as they grow while also increasing the rate at which forests release carbon to the atmosphere as they decay or burn.

The National Geographic Society convened a team of scientists and conservationists in 2019 to develop the new index. The index is based on multiple satellite observations and ground-based data from 1982 through 2018, such as Landsat and the Global Precipitation Measurement mission, covering climate conditions, land use, and forest characteristics.

When an ecosystem can no longer recover from stress as quickly or as completely as it used to, that’s a sign of its vulnerability. The researchers correlated data on stressors, such as temperature, water availability, and the extent of degradation with data on how well the forests are functioning: the amount of live biomass, the amount of carbon dioxide plants were absorbing, the amount of water the forests transpire into the atmosphere, the intactness of a forest’s biodiversity, and more. The correlations show how different forests have responded to stressors and how vulnerable the forests are now.

The team then used statistical models to extend trends over time, looking for areas with increasing vulnerability and possible tipping points where rainforests will transition into dry forests or grassy plains.

The data from the tropical rainforest vulnerability index provides scientists with an opportunity to perform more in-depth examinations of natural rainforest processes, such as carbon storage and productivity, changes in energy and water cycles, and changes in biodiversity. Those studies will help scientists understand whether there are tipping points and what they are likely to be. The information can also help policy makers who are planning for conservation and forest restoration activities.

NASA Joins White House National Climate Task Force

The administration’s climate agenda outlines putting climate at the center of the country’s foreign policy and national security and encourages a governmentwide approach to climate change.

From the launch of the first weather satellite in 1960, the Television and Infrared Observation Satellite (TIROS-1), NASA has used the vantage of space to study Earth. It remains the only space agency in the world providing end-to-end research on the Blue Planet to analyze and understand the processes involved.

“Climate change is one of the most pressing issues facing us today,” said Gavin Schmidt, acting NASA senior climate advisor and director of NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies in New York. “Given our unique ability to observe the planet from space and the long-term data records we’ve been able to assemble, NASA is in a prime position to inform policy decisions in the current administration and beyond.”

Working together with our government partners, including the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the United States Geological Survey, NASA is responsible for building the country’s Earth-observing assets in civil space. More than two dozen NASA satellites measure the height of oceans and inland waters, clouds and precipitation, soil moisture, carbon dioxide, and more. The data collected helps to improve weather forecasts, inform farming practices, and helps decision makers at all levels of government and the private sector.

Beyond Earth-observing satellites, NASA is developing predictive modeling technologies to examine policy-specific scenarios and conducting research that contributes to governmentwide sustainability efforts and understanding of climate change. To reduce the environmental impacts of aviation, NASA is conducting research for energy efficient aircraft that employ technologies such as lightweight structures, transformative aerodynamics, and hybrid-electric propulsion.

Through its long-term observations of Earth, providing insight into how the planet is changing, efforts to contribute to sustainable aviation and nurturing partnerships with the private sector, NASA already is poised to help the task force address the most pressing climate change issues today.